Excluding last year’s third quarter (which saw an astounding bounceback following the second quarter’s drop), this was the strongest quarterly growth rate for consumer spending since 1965.įixed business investment in equipment (up at an annualized 16.7%) and business investment in intellectual property products (up 10.1%) were also strong components of last quarter’s growth. Consumer spending, in fact, grew at an annualized 10.7% in the first quarter. In addition, COVID-19 stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment compensation were distributed in the first quarter and, combined with growing employment and a robust stock market, gave consumers the confidence to spend. Significantly more people began to be vaccinated in the first quarter encouraging state and local governments to begin to ease restrictions on activities, and life slowly began to return to a new normal. HAMILTON, NJ - AP- As more states began to re-open during first-quarter 2021, anticipated pent-up demand showed up in force and the economy grew at an annualized 6.4%. has struggled to find consensus on immigration policy for some time.īy Kim Kennedy, Director of Forecasting Dodge Data & Analytics How much of that slack will be tightened remains to be seen, however, since the U.S. immigration policies are loosened under a presumably more expansive Biden administration, immigrants may be able to take up some of the slack that a declining domestic population creates. population is a combination of the internal, domestic population as well as the in-migration of people from other parts of the world. The wild card, of course, lies with immigration. population will mean weaker demand for construction in coming years, shrinking the pie available to members of the construction industry. An argument could be made that a declining population even lowers demand for renovation, however, as a smaller population requires less space.
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Why is this significant to the construction industry? Population growth is the underlying driver of nearly all construction - with the possible exception of renovation that simply improves existing facilities and does not add new space. Today, that figure is less than two (1.6 in 2020) - a level that is below the “replacement rate” and therefore portends a decline in the population. In the 1950s, for example, the typical woman had an average of four children. A declining birth rate, in fact, has become a long-standing fact for the United States. Even as the economy begins to improve, births and birth rates are unlikely to show major changes. Since gestation is nine months, decisions about having children made in 2020 will continue to impact births through most of 2021. The negative economic impact of the pandemic has caused many Americans to be concerned about their jobs and income, student loan debt, and many other aspects of their finances, leading them to postpone or forego decisions to have children.įurthermore, the number of births and birth rate are unlikely to pull a sudden reversal in 2021 as the economy begins to re-open. Just 55.8 babies were born for every 1,000 women aged 15-44 in the U.S. The birth rate also fell 4% to its lowest level since 1979 (42 years). While last year was unique for so many reasons, one way it was not unique is that the number of babies born in the U.S. The recovery in the construction sector will be jagged through the remainder of 2021, but confidence is growing that 2022 will bring a healthy pickup in construction activity.īy Kim Kennedy Director of Forecasting, Dodge Data & Analytics Today’s jobs figure is a reminder that the hope that construction starts will post aggressive growth in the second half of the year must be tempered as scarce and higher prices for construction materials lead to further delays in getting projects underway and completed. The disappointing construction jobs figure stands in stark contrast to the dollar value of projects that Dodge Data & Analytics tracks in the early stages of planning, which are at levels not seen in nearly 13 years.
Employment in building construction grew by 4,900 positions due to gains in single family housing, but specialty trade jobs fell by 19,300 and heavy and civil engineering jobs dropped by 5,500. The construction sector, however, shed 20,000 jobs - the second consecutive monthly decline. Most new jobs came from leisure and hospitality (which added 292,000 jobs), education, and healthcare. Easing of state and local Covid-19 restrictions is helping the economy make steady improvement. economy added 589,000 new jobs in May, a solid improvement over the 278,000 jobs added in April, and the U.S. By Richard Branch, Chief Economist, Dodge Data & Analytics
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